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GoldmanHuangShan 68M
2531 posts
4/11/2008 3:57 am

Last Read:
4/20/2008 9:35 am

Commodities vs Equities


Dealer,

April 2 reported SME P/E stood at 36x while large cap stood at 25x... with export dwindling (cheaper $, subsidies removed, ops cost up 30, P/E wil rise.

The play is now on commodities....sugar, palm oil, crude oil, gold, silver....

The basics of basics are;
commodities ; supply vs demand .... on tap, promised dates etc.
dependents - scarcity, production, weather, int rates, purchasing power parity.

equities ; P/E now and promised dates.
dependents - performance, economy downturns

GoldmanHuangShan 68M

4/20/2008 9:35 am

Vicky......too bad i only work for myself these days........am a retired investment banker ........ nothing to invest thesedays....as the whole whole will be crying soon......subprime has hit europe...and will be goign east.....i expect many will cry in china....china has no experience in fall-outs.......unlike the US that has gone through few recession...china has not....and the shanghai exchnge came down 50% and many are crying......

NEVER invest in a Chinese share if you dont have enough info and much info is lackign......its lots of hearsay ....... so invest in something that is global...like commodities.....

when war is lurking....the real famine this time will not be due to draught of floods.....it will be INFLATION and people have not enough to buy.

watch out for global restructuring.


victorylee0516
(victoria lee)
41F

4/17/2008 12:01 am

You should try to contact SFB's wife, Dalina/Moonlight. She is an invetment banker who specilizes in agribusiness field. Maybe you can give her a few pointers on good companeis to invest in in China. Also, did you know that McKinsey is looking for a few good fellows in China to work with them?